Producing 1.37M vehicles this year with an estimated average battery pack of 70 kWh means Tesla used about 95 GWh of batteries in its cars. Add another 7 GWh for Tesla Energy (“storage deployed”) and Tesla used about 100 GWh of batteries in 2022.

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With $80B in revenue for the year that’s about $800/kWh. My battery revenue model assumes a very conservative $500/kWh.

If (a big if) Tesla can maintain 50% growth in batteries, here’s what’s coming:

2026: 500 GWh of batteries
2030: 2500 GWh of batteries

Tesla target for 2030 is 3000 GWh but let’s use 2500.

If Tesla can maintain $800/kWh that’s $400B revenue in 2026 (5X 2022) and $2T revenue in 2030 (25X).

On one hand revenue per kWh should decline as mix shifts to Megapack which is only $500/kWh, vehicle revenue might decline on a per kWh basis, and Megapack revenue per kWh might decline as well.

On the other hand FSD, robotaxi and Bot would dramatically increase revenue per kWh if/when they succeed.

Also Tesla Solar and Supercharger network revenue might scale. These use little or no batteries (powerwalls count separately) so they would be another boost to revenue per kWh.

Maybe I’m too bullish but I still see Tesla growing 25X as a company by 2030 and much more if robotaxi and/or Bot go into operations.